Illustrations: Lauren Nassef

The Coming Decade for Residential Design

由专筑网雷君，杨帆编译

在未来的十年内，美国住宅的设计将发生相当大的改变，这样的假设似乎很合理。这些变化将由基本生态经济和人口的发展，而不是摩登风格的技术创新来决定。人口的老龄化，过去十年的房地产市场崩溃，以及缓慢的经济复苏，使年轻的家庭在住房市场上取得领先，塑造未来的家庭设计会是很难的一件事。

根据AIA家居设计趋势调查，主要的住宅建筑公司在未来10年将提供房屋布局，特征、系统和产品以及街道和社区，厨房和浴室方面的设计。他们确定了通用设计的日益普及这一关键趋势；增加了对健康的生活环境，填充式开发和重点改进设计的关注；厨房也逐渐作为家庭活动的中心。


建筑的进步和传统规模的打破

AIA自2005年来一直追踪家居设计趋势，通过对500家住宅建筑公司的季度调查显示，从去年开始，自20世纪30年代大萧条最严重的经济衰退已经使房地产市场从最繁荣的阶段开始进行十年的转型，几个家庭设计主题便应运而生。

户外空间渐受欢迎

家庭生活方式变得更加随意。正式的起居室和餐厅也慢慢被大房间和开放空间布局取代了。而最初的甲板、天井和户外烤架成了关注的焦点，这一趋势已经扩展到室外厨房和配套齐全的户外空间。

家庭办公楼的兴起

经济衰退期间，企业规模的缩减迫使许多人失业。此外，技术的进步也使远程办公成了许多工人更可行的选择。尽管在房地产低迷时期，房屋的规模逐渐变小，但随着住房市场的日益普及，家庭办公楼也越来越受欢迎。

功能混合型住房

经济低迷的到来，阻碍了大型郊区住房的发展。房屋活动发生在较小的项目，往往与其他商业活动联系在一起。这种方式往往需要高密度发展，并且为附近居民提供额外的设施。

厨卫设计的新技术

大萧条时期恰巧是技术创新时期。许多消费者通过使用笔记本电脑、平板电脑和智能手机，从而取代了传统台式电脑。创造了这些在家中就可以提供的基础设施。此外，越来越多的人们关注可持续性增长的能源和节水设备的消费需求，以及新兴技术的发展，共同促进了这些领域的管理。


未来十年强势到来

尽管未来十年的经济周期将是一个很好的交易市场，但在未来十年中，一些人口的发展会形成住房需求。第一，我们的人口老龄化，更具体地说，迸发婴儿潮一代的人们正在进入退休年龄。虽然未来几年人口的增长速度将放缓，但在未来十年中，65岁或以上的人的比例将显著增长，相对于目前的数字，约占人口增长的三分之二。

X一代，被一些专家定义为那些目前在31岁至50岁（和其他那些35和50之间）的人群，是为未来的住房市场走向健康的关键人群。这个群体也是受住房危机影响最严重的，往往是因为他们在购房不久久面临市场崩溃。而全国住房拥有率从百分之六十九下降到低于百分之六十四，在过去的十年中，是X一代家庭拥有率下降速度的两倍之多。

不过，未来房地产市场状况的关注重点是千禧一代，美国历史上最大的一代。经济疲软已经对形成独立的家庭，结婚或形成伙伴关系，生育等方面产生了最大的影响。这限制了千禧家庭的需要。

撇开年代模式不谈，整体经济增速放缓，减少了对新房的需求。因此，在未来几年中，更大的一部分住宅投资将致力于改善现有的房屋，而不是建造新的住宅。在过去的几十年中，约百分之六十的住房支出在致力于建造新的房屋，而不是维护和改善现有住房。这一比例逐渐发生改变，在十年内，我们会看到，比例将会发生翻转。


家庭设计的影响

2025年将恢复住房市场，再加上不断发展的人口模式，在很大程度上决定着新兴的家庭设计趋势。在我们的调查中，领先的建筑公司已经确定好设计趋势，并将继续发展，而其他人仍处于早期阶段的设计中。

住房的通用设计

通用设计，一系列的原则，与外界接触的环境，就是二十年的设计趋势。然而，我们现在有一个大家庭，开始更认真地考虑未来几年的住房需求。在未来10年中，大多数的婴儿潮一代将有65岁，这些家庭仍然积极参与家庭改善项目，将越来越多地考虑如何将无障碍功能纳入到他们进行的项目中。

家庭环境的关注

环境健康问题关注的焦点是居住环境。最近通过一项全国性的消费者调查发现，至少四分之一的房主的住宅可能会导致健康问题，而另外百分之二十是不确定。因为租房者控制自己的居住环境的能力较差，所以他们更加密切关注。室内空气质量是健康家庭关注的问题，但在家里的水质和潜在的有害物质或化学物质都无可避免。更强的消费意识和越来越不被信任的政府和行业有可能导致家庭的健康问题，他们甚至还有更高层次的认识。

个性化设计更具吸引力

在既定的位置更利于项目的建设，公共交通的选择，商业活动是许多年轻家庭考虑的因素，他们不喜欢在偏远的地方或传统的住宅区。在与外界接触较多的地方通常更为昂贵，所以住宅通常会比较小，有更多的创新设计。建筑师认为，这种趋势将继续下去。较小的家庭可能会对在大的房子没什么兴趣，反而可能寻找更理想的位置，以及具有更个性化的设计特点。

厨房仍是家庭设计的中心

就算是在经济低迷时期，随着家庭规模的缩减，一些住宅建筑设计师们对厨房的尺寸和功能的关注反而更少。随着住宅市场的复苏，住宅建筑已经逐渐演变成了家庭住宅的中心。由于家庭空间连接到厨房已成为标准的最新的家园设计，所以厨房成为家庭活动的中心。

显然，其他因素也会对未来十年的家庭设计产生重大影响。新技术的突破，不断发展的建筑法规和监管系统，以及消费者对住房的特性和材料的偏好，都是重要的考虑因素。然而，住宅建筑设计师认为，设计功能的变化是渐进的，一般来说都能反映基本的社会和经济趋势。


放眼未来

非住宅建筑预计将反映家庭在未来的十年的变化。AIA工作成员将展示住宅区可能演变的方向。

高效房屋建筑

百分之五十九的建筑师目前在他们的项目中使用自然通风，有百分之七十五也表示在2016年同样会这样做。新兴技术在设计和建设中的作用日益重要。新技术不仅使建筑更为高效，而且可以提高使用效率。建筑师们预计，在未来五至十年内，照明技术系统的重要性将会显著提高。这些变化不仅有助于提高建筑物的能源效率，减少电力的使用，透过自然光，也改善了工作场所的工作环境。此外，百分之四十一的受访者估计了自动系统的重要性，通过产品的运动传感器激活灯，也可以帮助减少能源的使用。

可持续性发展的要求

百分之六十的建筑公司预计，在未来的十年中，水效率将是最重要的可持续发展的优先事项之一。随着能源的使用，通过使用新的技术，其他自然资源的保护，预计将用于未来的设计和建筑行业。百分之四十的建筑公司预计在未来五到十年内节约用水将会日益重要，而百分之三十八的企业预计，节能设计和改造也是同等重要。事实上，在某些司法管辖区，这些问题已经存在。太阳能和风力发电也有望在未来十年中用于建筑设计。

新型设计和建筑方法使建筑焕然一新

2013年，百分之三十七的建筑企业使用BIM计费工作，是从2015年的百分之十开始增加的。建筑设计的工具和方法也在不断发展。建筑信息建模软件被广泛使用，也将在未来十年中继续发展。此外，百分之二十二的公司预计，设计/建设和其他替代项目交付技术，施工技术也将有显著增加的重要性。这些趋势提高了建筑设计过程中的效率，同时也提高了建筑的生命周期。

材料的革新为建筑扩大选择

百分之五点五到百分之八的美国年均能源消费都用于建筑和材料。在未来，提高建筑设计能源技术效率将是非常重要的一点。通过技术发展完成的建筑，不仅有助于提高建筑效率（如可再生和低维护材料）-这百分之二十八的公司预计其重要性在未来五年至十年将会显著增加，同时也鼓励新的建筑方法，如通过复合材料和新的玻璃和玻璃技术的产品。

While it seems safe to assume that the design of U.S. homes will undergo fairly significant changes over the coming decade, it’s equally likely that these changes will be determined by fundamental economic and demographic developments instead of Jetsons-style technological innovations. The aging of our population, the continued recovery from last decade’s housing collapse, and a painfully slow economic recovery that is making it difficult for younger households to get ahead in the housing market are all factors that will shape the future of home design.
In the AIA’s Home Design Trends Survey, leading residential architecture firms provided their vision for the next 10 years in terms of home layout; features, systems, and products; neighborhood and community design; and kitchens and baths. The key trends that they identified are the growing popularity of universal design; increased attention to a healthy living environment; infill development and its focus on improved design; and the growing popularity of kitchens as the focus of household activities.

Housing Progress and the Housing Bust
The AIA has been tracking home design trends since 2005 through quarterly surveys of approximately 500 residential architecture firms. Since that inaugural year was near to the peak of the last housing boom, this survey has traced the housing market from one of the strongest booms through the steepest housing downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Through this decade of transition, several home design themes emerged.

• Outdoor living expanded in popularity. Lifestyles have become more informal, and homes are reflecting this. Formal living rooms and dining rooms are disappearing, replaced by great rooms, dens, and open-space layouts. With this movement to informality has been growth in outdoor living. While initially decks, patios, and outdoor grills were the focus, this trend has expanded to outdoor kitchens and even fully furnished outdoor rooms.

• Changing work patterns encouraged growth of home offices. During the recession, company scale-backs forced many to work or job hunt out of their homes. Additionally, technology advancements made telecommuting a more feasible option for many workers. As a result, even though homes were getting smaller during the housing downturn, home offices were growing in popularity.

• Residential projects were integrated into mixed-use facilities. With the downturn came the demise of large suburban tract housing developments. In their place, housing activity occurred in smaller projects, often tied to other commercial activities. This approach often necessitated higher-density development and provided additional amenities for nearby residents.

• Technology was incorporated into kitchens and baths. The Great Recession coincided with a period of technological innovation. Many consumers supplemented their traditional desktop computer with laptops, tablets, and smartphones. This created the need to provide the infrastructure within homes to support all these devices. Additionally, growing concerns about sustainability increased consumer demand for energy and water conservation devices, and emerging technologies often facilitated the management of these systems in the home.

Forces Shaping the Coming Decade

While economic cycles will, hopefully, be a good deal less severe over the coming decade, several demographic forces will shape housing demand in the years ahead. The first of these is the general aging of our population and, more specifically, the movement of the Baby Boom generation into their retirement years. Though population growth will slow in the coming years, the share of people 65 or older will grow dramatically, relative to current numbers, accounting for about two-thirds of net population growth in the coming decade.
Gen Xers, defined by some experts as those currently between the ages of 31 and 50 (and others as those between 35 and 50), are a key demographic for the future health of the housing market. This group was also the hardest hit by the housing recession, often because they were just entering into homeownership as the market collapsed. While the national homeownership rate declined from 69 percent to less than 64 percent over the past decade, rates fell at about twice that pace for Gen Xer households.
Still, most of the concern over future housing market conditions is focused on the Millennial generation, the largest generation in U.S. history. The weak economy has had the greatest effect on this generation in terms of delays in forming independent households, getting married or forming partnerships, and having children. This has limited the need for additional homes and skewed demand toward renting for those Millennial households that have been formed.
Generational patterns aside, the overall slowdown in population growth is reducing the need for new homes. As such, a greater share of residential investment in coming years will be devoted to improving existing homes rather than building new ones. Over the past few decades, about 60 percent of housing spending has been devoted to building new homes as opposed to maintaining and improving the existing housing stock. That share is shifting, and within a decade we should see that ratio flipped with 60 percent of expenditures devoted to the existing housing stock.

Emerging Influences on Home Design

A recovering housing market, coupled with evolving demographic patterns nationally, will largely determine emerging home design trends through 2025. Identified by leading architecture firms in our survey, some of these trends are already in place and will continue to develop while others are still in the early stages of adoption.

• Continued expansion of universal design and accessibility features throughout the home. Universal design, a series of principles that encourage a more accessible environment, has been well-articulated for two decades. However, we now have a large generation of households that is beginning to think more seriously about its housing needs for the coming years. Over the next 10 years, the majority of Baby Boomers will have turned 65; those households that remain actively involved in home improvement projects will increasingly think about how to incorporate accessibility features into the projects they undertake.

• Increased focus on a healthy home environment. The emerging concern over environmental health issues is increasingly being focused on residential environments. A recent national consumer survey found that a quarter of homeowners were at least suspicious that their home may be causing health problems, while an additional 20 percent were unsure whether to be concerned or not. Since renters have less ability to control their residential environment, they express even higher levels of concern. Indoor air quality tops the list of healthy home concerns, but water quality and potentially harmful materials or chemicals in the home also are commonly mentioned. Greater consumer awareness and growing mistrust of government and industry are likely to push healthy home issues to even greater levels of awareness.

• Infill development promotes smaller, better designed homes. Building in established locations that are more accessible to jobs, public transportation options, and commercial activities has increased as many younger households show little interest in traditional housing subdivisions in more remote locations. Building in these more accessible locations is typically more expensive, so homes frequently are smaller and have more innovative designs. Residential architects feel that this trend will continue. Smaller households may have less interest in larger homes, and may instead look for more desirable locations with more personalized design features.

• Kitchens remain a focus of household activities. Even during the housing downturn, as households scaled back many home features, few residential architects reported less attention to size and features of kitchens. Kitchens have evolved into the family center of most homes, and, as the housing market recovers, residential architects report even more emphasis on this. Because family space connected to kitchen space has become standard in most new homes, the centrality of the kitchen to household operations is destined to continue to increase.

Obviously, other factors will have a major influence on how homes are designed over the coming decade. New technological breakthroughs, evolving building code and regulatory issues, and changing consumer preferences for housing features and materials are obvious considerations that will influence home design. Still, residential architects see that changes in design features are incremental, and generally reflective of underlying social and economic trends.

Beyond Your Front Door
Nonresidential buildings are expected to reflect similar changes to homes over the coming decade. The members of the AIA’s Work-on-the-Boards panel provide their perspective on how buildings might evolve.

Technology enhancements increase efficiency. Fifty-nine percent of architects currently use natural ventilation in their projects, with 75 percent expecting to do so by 2016. (The Drive Towards Healthier Buildings McGraw- Hill Construction SmartMarket Report, 2014)
Emerging technologies continue to be increasingly important in design and construction. New technologies not only make buildings more efficient, but can also increase the efficiency of the people using the buildings. Architects anticipate that there will be a significant increase in the importance of lighting technology systems (e.g., LED) over the next five to 10 years. These changes not only contribute to the increased energy efficiency of buildings by decreasing the use of electricity, but also enhance the workplace environment for the people working there through more natural light. In addition, 41 percent of survey respondents anticipate a significant increase in the importance of automated systems, which can also help decrease energy usage through products like motion-sensor-activated lights.

Heightened focus on conservation. Sixty percent of architecture firms anticipate that water efficiency will be one of the top client sustainability priorities in the coming decade. (April 2015 Architecture Billings Index special question)
Along with reductions in energy usage through the use of new technology, conservation of other natural resources is expected to increase in the design and construction industry in the future. Four in 10 responding architecture firms expect that water conservation will significantly increase in importance over the next five to 10 years, while 38 percent of firms anticipate that energy efficiency designs and retrofits will do the same. In fact, in some jurisdictions, codes governing many of these issues already exist. Solar and wind power are also expected to increase in importance for building design over the next decade.

New design and construction methods change the building process. Thirty-seven percent of architecture firms used BIM for billable work in 2013, up from 10 percent in 2005. (2014 Firm Survey)
The tools and methods that architects use to design buildings are also continuing to evolve. The use of building information modeling software, while already widespread, will continue to grow over the next decade. In addition, 22 percent of responding firms expect that design/build and other alternative project delivery techniques will significantly increase in importance, as will lean construction techniques. These trends speak to increased efficiency in both the building design process as well as throughout the life cycle of the building.

Innovation in materials allows for expanded design options. From 5.5 to 8 percent of total annual U.S. energy consumption is from building construction and materials. (2030 Challenge for Products)
In the future, efficiency will not only be found in the design of buildings but also in the products that are used in the construction of those buildings. Technology has led to the development of products that not only contribute towards increasing building efficiency (e.g. renewable and low-maintenance materials)—which 28 percent of responding firms anticipate will significantly increase in importance over the next five to 10 years, but products that also allow for new ways to design, such as through composite materials and new glass and glazing technologies.

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