Image © Dave Burk

美国空置的办公楼是否能变成公共投资的机遇？
Vacant Office Buildings in the United States: An Opportunity for Public Investment?

由专筑网tianyi，小R编译

最近四年，美国的建筑和房地产行业因为各种形势造成影响与动荡。远程办公和弹性工作模式的加速发展导致美国各大城市对传统办公空间的需求急剧下降。在纽约和旧金山等大都市，办公空间的占用率下降，物业价值降低，租金大幅下跌。在建筑师为未来的办公场景、地点、空间进行设计的同时，房地产市场在是否投资于美国不断增加的空置办公楼问题上也面临着不同的观点。

美国各地的城市正在经历居家办公时代带来的一些负面影响。随着人们向郊区迁移以寻求负担得起的生活时，市中心写字楼的价值和入住率持续下降。麦肯锡的一份报告显示，2019 年至 2022 年期间，纽约市写字楼的租金价格下降了 18%。在旧金山，同期租金下降了 28%。相反，亚特兰大的写字楼物业的美元价值在 2019 年至 2022 年期间增长了 31%，与大趋势背道而驰。

Four years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, its effects are still felt in the construction and real estate sectors in the United States. Accelerated remote work and hybrid schedules are leading to a sharp decline in demand for traditional office space in cities across America. In major metros like New York and San Francisco, occupancy rates have dropped, property values have diminished and rents have fallen significantly. As architects design for the future of work, the real estate market faces divided perspectives on whether to invest in the country's growing inventory of vacant office buildings.
Cities across the United States are experiencing some negative effects of the work-from-home era. As people migrate to the suburbs in search of affordable living conditions, the value and occupancy rates of downtown office buildings continue to decline. According to a report by McKinsey, rental prices for office spaces in New York City fell by 18% between 2019 and 2022. In San Francisco, rents decreased by 28% over the same period. On the contrary, office properties in Atlanta saw their dollar value increase by 31% from 2019 to 2022, bucking the larger trend.


Image © Brian W. Ferry

商业办公楼租赁的典型架构加剧了楼宇业主所面临的挑战。商业房地产业的租期往往相当长，通常为 10 年或更长，这在以前为业主提供了稳定的收入来源。然而，随着越来越少的人前往中心商务区工作，许多企业租户开始重新考虑是否需要大面积租赁。一些公司可能会选择在现有租约到期后协商更短的续租期限，而另一些公司则已经完全终止了长期租约。如果出租率无法恢复到之前的水平，将办公楼改作其他用途可能是这些建筑的唯一解决方案。

许多专家将办公楼的困境与本世纪初线上购物刚刚兴起时购物中心的困境相提并论。在线上购物兴盛时期，购物中心被重新用作警察局、室内农场和板球场等非传统用途。2008 年的经济危机为城市提供了一个类似的机会来重新利用房地产崩盘后的不良资产，然而，这个机会并没有被充分利用。相反，大多数丧失赎回权的房产被投资者收购，然后以高价出售或出租，根本不考虑社区需求。在美国城市应对当代复杂经济形势的过程中，公共部门有机会采取积极主动的态度，直接投资改造空置办公楼。

The typical structure of commercial office leases has aggravated the challenges facing building owners. Lease terms in the commercial real estate sector tend to be quite long, often 10 years or more, which previously provided owners with a steady revenue stream. However, as fewer employees make the commute into central business districts, many corporate tenants are rethinking the need for large leased footprints. Some companies may opt to negotiate shorter lease renewals when their current terms expire, while others have already terminated their long-standing agreements altogether. If occupancy rates fail to return to pre-pandemic levels, converting office buildings into alternative uses may be the only solution for these structures.
Many experts compare the predicament of office buildings to that of shopping malls in the early 2000s when e-commerce first took off. The time of the dot com crash saw malls being repurposed into non-traditional uses like police stations, indoor farms, and cricket stadiums. The 2008 economic crisis provided cities with a similar chance to repurpose distressed assets after the housing crash, however, this opportunity was not capitalized on. Instead, most foreclosed properties were acquired by investors, and then flipped or rented at high rates without regard for community needs. As American cities navigate contemporary economic complexities, the public sector has a chance to be proactive and directly invest in transforming vacant offices themselves.


西 22 街 512 号办公楼 / COOKFOX 建筑事务所
512 West 22nd Street Office Building / COOKFOX Architects. Image © Bruce Damonte


谷歌纽约总部 / COOKFOX Architects + Gensler
Google Headquarters New York / COOKFOX Architects + Gensler. Image Courtesy of Google

尽管存在这些挑战，但投资者对不景气的房地产市场依旧怀有新的兴趣。有经验的投资者认识到城市中心的稳定性，正在收购打折的房产。对于公共部门来说，城市中大量的商业空置既是挑战也是机遇。地方政府正在探索各种策略，鼓励将办公空间改造成住宅或多功能开发项目。减税和低息贷款等举措旨在吸引开发商，刺激城市振兴。

《城市新秩序》一书的作者Diana Lind指出：“随着商业地产在2024年丧失赎回权，政府可以采取措施，通过自己投资这些地产，更好地塑造未来的城市”。反思 2008 年经济危机期间城市因投资者抢占抵押房产而错失良机的情况，人们越来越意识到需要进行积极主动的城市规划。通过投资空置或不景气的商业建筑，城市可以促进包容性发展。

Despite these challenges, there is a newfound interest in distressed real estate among investors. Recognizing the stability of urban centers post-pandemic, experienced investors are capitalizing on discounted properties. For the public sector, massive commercial vacancies in cities present both a challenge and an opportunity. Local governments are exploring strategies to incentivize the conversion of office spaces into residential or mixed-use developments. Initiatives such as tax abatements and low-interest loans aim to attract developers and stimulate urban revitalization.
Author of The New Urban Order, Diana Lind notes "as commercial properties fall into foreclosure in 2024, cities could take steps to better shape the city they want in the future by actually investing in those properties themselves". Reflecting on missed opportunities during the 2008 economic crisis, where cities stood on the sidelines as investors seized foreclosed properties, there is a growing realization of the need for proactive urban planning. By investing in distressed commercial buildings, cities can foster inclusive development.


Uber 总部 / SHoP 建筑事务所
Uber Headquarters / SHoP Architects. Image © Jason O'Rear

公共部门有足够的理由购买和重新利用这些房产。城市可以利用这些旧的办公楼来启动创新区——研究机构、初创企业和企业加速器的集群。将知识活动集中在市中心可以推动经济增长，吸引技术人才。将商业地产的公共化意味着将租金和配套设施导向包容性增长，而不是最大限度地攫取利润。收购公共交通附近的空置写字楼，还可以在黄金地段开发经济适用房。还可以将建筑物改造成娱乐中心、图书馆、创业孵化器和其他能带来价值的设施。

归根结底，大规模的居家办公模式削弱了办公地点存在的必要，破坏了城市预算和市中心的活力。然而，商业地产未来的空置和不确定性也带来了隐藏的机遇。城市如果能战略性地投资于办公楼的改造，就能促进公平、激励创新，并塑造未来的城市景观。只要具有远见卓识，“居家办公”时代的余波可以转化为更强大、更有韧性的城市。

There are convincing reasons for the public sector to buy and repurpose properties. Cities can use repurposed offices to jumpstart innovation districts - clusters of research institutions, startups, and business accelerators. Concentrating knowledge activities downtown can drive economic growth and attract skilled talent. Keeping commercial property public means steering rents and amenities toward inclusive growth rather than maximum profit extraction. Acquiring vacant offices near public transit could also allow the development of affordable housing in prime locations. Buildings could also be converted into recreation centers, libraries, startup incubators, and other amenities that bring value.
Ultimately, the mass shift to remote work has emptied offices and damaged city budgets and downtown vitality. However, the vacancy and uncertainties around the future of commercial real estate bring hidden opportunities. Cities that strategically invest in converting offices can promote equity, stimulate innovation, and shape urban landscapes for the future. With foresight and vision, the fallout from the “work from home” era can be turned into stronger, more resilient cities.