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在车辆智能化的未来,城市规划将如何发展?第1张图片


人性化设计:车辆智能自动化背景下的未来城市规划
People-Driven Design: Planning for the Urban Future of Autonomous Vehicles

由专筑网pilewyj,李韧编译

预计在2020年左右,北美的高速公路和城市街道上会出现大量具有自动驾驶能力的汽车。根据RethinkX研究报告“2020-2030年交通运输规划探讨:交通运输业的萎靡和传统机动车和石油行业的崩溃”,到2030年,95%的美国旅客将选择可提供交通服务(TAAS)的公司拥有的自动驾驶车辆(AVS)作为主要出行方式。对来自不同行业的人来说,不管是现在还买不起汽车的人,还是数百万每天疲于奔命的上班族,这种无人驾驶汽车的采用将对他们的生活方式产生巨大的影响。

正如一个世纪前,小汽车的发明问世对社会产生了翻天覆地的影响,如今自动驾驶的汽车将作为我们主要的交通方式,同样会将人们生活引导向另一个方向。为了确保城市体验向正确的方向提升,城市及其私营部门合作伙伴需要对这个新格局做出相应的规划与引导。

停车话题的思考

随着私家车车主的角色逐渐转变为智能房车车队的定期服务对象,现状的停车用地则可转换为其他用途。McKinsey & Company的一份报告预测,到2050年,无人驾驶汽车将为美国节约近610亿平方英尺(57亿平方米)的停车用地,这个面积甚至超过整个特拉华州的面积。

现在的旧金山中央商务区有301英亩(122公顷)的土地用于露天停车。自动驾驶汽车因为没有摆动的车门,所以它比传统的汽车窄,并且由超精确的导航技术引导,所以停车只需要4英寸(10厘米)的边侧距离。这样一来,自主停车场的空间紧凑度可以提升15%,节约下来的69英亩(30公顷)的宝贵土地能够用于建设公园、社区花园,或建筑物。城市交通拥堵的问题也将得到缓解,城市街道上寻找停车位的司机将大大减少。同样,将自动驾驶汽车广泛应用到郊区办公园区内的所有停车场中,通勤效率与土地使用率都能得到很大的提升。

地上独立式停车场的传统停车模式是我们日常所见。不管是市中心还是郊区,医院、机场、大学、购物中心和体育场附近大多是这样的停车场。但是今天正在规划的项目的开发商有理由重新审视这些车库的投资建设。随着越来越多的人通过预约车辆的方式出行,传统的大型固定停车位的需求会逐步减弱。

By the early 2020s, a significant number of cars with self-driving capabilities could be on North America’s freeways and city streets. Fast-forward to 2030 and 95 percent of U.S. passenger miles traveled could be served by autonomous vehicles (AVs) owned by companies providing transportation as a service (TaaS), according to the RethinkX research report Rethinking Transportation 2020–2030: The Disruption of Transportation and the Collapse of the ICE Vehicle and Oil Industries. This adoption of driverless cars will be life-altering for people from all walks of life—from those who currently cannot afford to own a car to millions of frazzled daily commuters.
Just as a century ago, when the arrival of the personal automobile fundamentally changed our society, the advent of AVs as our main mode of transportation will trigger another shift in people’s lives. To ensure that the changes will enhance the urban experience, cities and their private sector partners need to start planning for this new world.

Rethinking Parking
As car ownership evolves to a subscription service with intelligent fleets of AVs, land currently used for parking will become available for conversion to other uses. A McKinsey & Company report predicts that by the middle of the century, driverless cars will cut the need for parking in the United States by more than 61 billion square feet (5.7 billion sq m)—more than the entire state of Delaware.
Today, San Francisco’s central business district has 301 acres (122 ha) devoted to surface parking lots. AVs are narrower than conventional cars and, because they don’t have swinging doors and are guided by ultra-precise navigation technology, need as little as four inches (10 cm) on either side to park. Spaces in a self-parking AV lot could be 15 percent tighter, reclaiming 69 acres (30 ha) of valuable land in San Francisco for parks, community gardens, or buildings. This would also ease urban congestion, since a large portion of vehicles on city streets are drivers looking for parking. Likewise, dedicating entire parking lots at suburban office campuses to AVs would increase vehicle capacity while freeing up land for new development.
Think about the ubiquitous above-grade, freestanding parking garage. You see it in the suburbs and downtown, alongside your hospital, airport, university, shopping mall, and stadium. But developers of projects being planned today justifiably see these garages as dubious investments. As more people are driven to these places and events through subscription services like Uber or Lyft, managing the momentary but high-volume interactions and complex synchronizations at elongated curb spaces takes priority over the short-term storage of private vehicles at 180 square feet (16.7 sq m) per parking space.

在车辆智能化的未来,城市规划将如何发展?第2张图片


为了2030年及以后的发展做好准备,设计师们将停车库定义为多功能建筑,随着私人车辆(以及相关停车收入)的减少,这些停车设施将用于商业活动或住宅。

设计适应性停车库需要现场规划师、建筑师、工程师和室内设计师共同合作,对项目进行综合设计,包括从选择合适的场地到可拆卸的建筑外壳设计等工作。其他考虑因素包括优化结构刚度、适应现有要求以及提供高效的MEP系统,这些可持续理念下的系统能够使适应性停车库变得更加智能,用途也更加灵活。

考虑到这一系列的改建提升工作很可能造成预算超支,业主可以不用拆除车库,这样也不用进行后续对规章制度核查等冗杂的流程。

To prepare for 2030 and beyond, designers are envisioning parking garages as universal structures that, as personal vehicles (and the associated parking revenue) go away, can easily adapt to future commercial or residential uses on the same footprint.
Designing adaptive parking garages requires the input of site planners, architects, engineers, and interior designers, who must collaborate on an integrated design that encompasses everything from selecting the right site to designing a removable building enclosure. Other considerations include optimal structural rigidity, accommodating exiting requirements, and providing efficient MEP systems that will contribute to efforts to achieve carbon neutrality in future uses. Through this multidisciplinary collaboration, these garages can be designed as responsive facilities, ready to be converted into an office space, a hotel, shops, residences, or even a vertical farm.
Though incorporating flexibility for future conversion requires an upfront cost premium, this pre-investment will more than pay for itself. And down the line, it will allow an owner to avoid the need to tear down a garage and then navigate through a lengthy public planning process and the associated environmental impact report.

在车辆智能化的未来,城市规划将如何发展?第3张图片


活力的街道

自动驾驶汽车对城市环境的影响远不止于停车库。城市街道、肌理以及不同团体的文化跨界交流都将得到很大的提升。

自动驾驶汽车的应用能够改变街道尺度、路牙高度以及边侧道路空间的高度,当然,其影响力远不止这些。美国有412万英里(663万公里)的公路,其中一些穿过了美国高价值的城市房地产区域,这些都是极具潜力的用地。自动驾驶汽车利用“物联网”与周边基础设施相连,这些用地的价值能够通过综合性街道得到更大的体现。

街道不应该只是单一的通行场所,通过把行人、骑行者和房车整合到完全不同的环境中,街道也能发挥促进健康、人居福利、提升文化和商业的影响。通过把建筑内部30英尺(9.1米)的空间开放到街道,延伸成为充满活动的室内外公共领域,街道将成为具有活力的生活空间。

这些新一代街道将以“自然第一”的理念设计,为具有渗透和清洁雨水功能的渗透性表面和生态种植槽提供更多的区域。大面积的绿色空间将带来新鲜的空气、舒适的环境,以及更多地彰显当地文化的公共空间,同时塑造安静的交谈环境。贴近人们生活的街道有着适合步行者、跑步者和骑行者的活力环境。街道也有着容纳工作场所会议、创新零售业态和餐厅室外就餐区的功能。

随着人们的日常活动场地逐渐融入综合性街道中,汽车停车位和机动车道得被逐步取代,规划者似乎有了更多的施展空间,密集、步行的城市,拥有充满活力的混合使用区,这些具有吸引力的地方足以满足各个年龄层人群的需求。

Living Streets
The impact of AVs on the built environment extends far beyond parking garages. Imagine a world in which land reclaimed from today’s streets actually contributes to a community’s broader culture and social fabric.
The arrival of self-driving cars brings opportunities to do much more than simply compress the size of streets, tweak curb heights, and regain a few feet of sidewalk space on each side. The 4.12 million miles (6.63 million km) of roadways in the United States, some of which pass through the country’s highest-value urban real estate, serve as an unparalleled land bank. As AVs leverage the “internet of things” to connect with the surrounding infrastructure, municipalities will be able to create truly universal streets.
Instead of approaching streets as places used almost exclusively for linear passage, planners will integrate pedestrians, cyclists, and AVs in radically different environments that promote health, well-being, culture, and commerce. These living streets of the future will become places that respond to adjacent development and that transform the first 30 feet (9.1 m) of space extending from buildings into an activity-filled, indoor/outdoor public realm.
Designed with “nature first” concepts, these next-generation streets will offer more area for permeable surfaces and bioswales to infiltrate and clean stormwater. The robust green space and tree canopy will offer fresher air, thermal comfort, and more room to express local culture while providing quieter, conversational environments. Living streets will be active environments that cater to walkers, runners, and cyclists. The streets will create outdoor areas for workplace meetings, new retail concepts, and expanded outdoor restaurant seating.
As these integrated streets become dynamic spaces for human activity and take the place of parked cars and vehicle lanes, planners will be better equipped to create dense, walkable cities with vibrant mixed-use districts—places that truly appeal to people of all ages.

在车辆智能化的未来,城市规划将如何发展?第4张图片


人性化设计

负担得起的交通,包括基于自动驾驶汽车系统的共享货车和公共汽车体系,将为人们打开通往美好生活的另一扇门,不同的基础设施建设的质量也都能相应提高。

自动驾驶汽车体系支持的以人为本的设计理念将是一个良好的开端,人们的日常生活质量能得到提高,同时房地产开发商也将收获大量机会去开拓新市场。

共享道路

与自动驾驶汽车体系相关的技术和安全条例也在不断发展。如今机动车与行人之间的冲突日益凸显,政府的交通管理部门以及类似组织和机构则开始对相关条例进行补充修正,这些条款也将更好地引导设计师去设计新的出行工具。

沁足计划

随着技术的发展以及人们对于机动车的依赖性逐步降低,自动驾驶汽车将为社会的各个方向以及产业带来不同的机遇,城市发展方向也将受此影响,向积极方向加速前进。

目前,规划者仍需政府相关部门协商制定条款与方针,以促进创建适应性停车设施和综合性街道。规划师希望利用自动驾驶汽车的广泛使用,帮助城市更好地解决社会未来的挑战,比如城市发展弹性、社会公平、城市通达性和公共卫生等话题。他们正在考虑如何将自动驾驶系统与现有公共交通系统融合,更大范围地发展整个交通系统。同时,业主们也在增加自动驾驶车辆的临时停靠点。

HOK规划工作室已经对一些项目进行了研究,包括街道展示馆、大学校园、购物中心、大型体育和娱乐场所,这些元素与自动驾驶车辆专用的环路或连接附近公交线路的规划路径有很大的交流。自动驾驶车辆专用的环路还可以将居住区、城市中心和交通换乘节点联系起来,从另一个方面降低了人们对于停车库的需求,并为老年人提供了很大的便捷性,他们可以通过自动驾驶车辆到达杂货店、药店、健身房和咖啡馆。

在沿海城市,如西雅图,与轮渡码头交通系统连接的无人驾驶汽车线路可以减少码头基础设施和停车场的影响。这将促进该区域更密集地发展,集中人员和服务确保该区域以可持续的方式发展。

随着我们在未来的几年和几十年里对这些沁足项目做出的努力,规划者将有更大的空间去重新定义公共空间,增加房地产资产的价值,同时还能创造更健康、更公平的社区环境。

People-Driven Design
Affordable transportation, including van-sharing and driverless buses made possible through AVs, will open a new world of access—the fundamental decision maker for humans—to better jobs, health care, clean food, affordable housing, and high-quality schools for underserved segments of the population.
The people-first design approach enabled by AVs will be an open invitation for happier, healthier, and safer lives. By focusing on quality of life, planners can actively encourage positive health behaviors by improving the physical spaces that shape people’s routine choices, decisions, and actions. This also will create opportunities for real estate developers to tap into new markets made up of people seeking live/work/play environments.

Sharing the Road
The technology and safety considerations associated with AVs are constantly evolving. The age-old conflict between vehicles, cyclists, and pedestrians is growing in importance, with the advent of autonomous vehicles triggering a widespread revisit to many long-established safety standards that the U.S. Department of Transportation, NATCO, and similar organizations and agencies use as a basis to formulate vehicle design, driving control, and street design standards. The technology progression will be informed by the capabilities and limits of the rapidly evolving sensing technologies used by AVs.

Toes-in-the-Water Projects
As technology evolves and the move away from an auto-centric lifestyle emerges, AVs will provide unprecedented opportunities to reshape the built environment. Progressive developers, investors, municipalities, and transportation officials already anticipating this coming transformation are beginning to work with planners to future-proof projects and visualize how cities, towns, and suburbs previously planned to accommodate vehicles first can be redesigned for people.
For now, planners still need to work with state and federal agencies to develop new policies, zoning codes, and design standards that facilitate the creation of adaptive parking structures and universal streets. But there are many incremental land use changes that can start immediately. Planners are leaning into the rise of AVs by orchestrating the coming disruption to best assist in solving our most complex planning challenges: resilience, social equity, access, and public health. They are considering how to integrate AVs with existing public transit to broaden access to the system. And property owners are adding pick-up and drop-off lanes and adjusting on-site traffic flows for AVs.
HOK’s planning studio has developed research studies of projects including subdistrict showcases, university campuses, shopping centers, and large sporting and entertainment venues supported by AV loops or planned pathways that link to nearby transit connections. AV loops also can link single-family and low-density housing to transit-oriented developments and urban centers, potentially eliminating the need for park-and-ride garages and extending living-in-place options for an aging population with driverless transport to grocery stores, pharmacies, gyms, and cafés.
In coastal or seaport cities like Seattle, operating an AV fleet connected to ferry terminals could minimize the impact on terminal infrastructure and parking. This would allow for dense, highly compact development that concentrates people and services to limit sprawl in an ecologically responsible manner.
As we advance beyond these “toes in the water” projects over the years and decades to come, planners will have abundant opportunities to reclaim the public realm for a greater purpose—increasing the value of real estate assets while creating healthier, more equitable communities.

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