多伦多泡沫：加拿大房地产持续飞升
The Toronto Bubble: Housing in the Canadian City Continues Climbing Out of Reach

由专筑网郑善廷，小R编译

居住在加拿大大城市的人们强烈地感受到房地产的火热。过去五年，房地产市场蓬勃发展，导致年轻一代的买房和租房困难。高昂的租金和房价正在将城市居民赶出市区，去往附近的城镇。其中，多伦多和西海岸的温哥华是房价最高、也是最被口诛笔伐的城市。导致以上危机的产生有多方面的原因，涉及众多因素。在我们仔细研究多伦多这个加拿大人口最多的城市时，我们意识到迫切地需要政府的干预，以确保多伦多人能够在城市居住。

多伦多是北美第五大城市，充满活力和多元文化。它以其独特的建筑、多样性和丰富的机会而闻名，当地近一半的人口是移民。这里拥有从19世纪乔治亚风格到后现代风格的建筑，许多人都梦想着拥有典型的维多利亚时代和爱德华时代风格的红砖住宅，这些住宅位于多伦多市中心的街道上。然而，这样的房子很难买到，而且价格不菲。

造成这场危机的一个主要因素是供不应求。加拿大城市研究所、多伦多市和加拿大经济分析中心最近发布的一份报告证明了这一点。从社区住房到高端房地产，市场上根本没有足够的房产。由于供应的缺乏，市场上的房产成本很高，价格也很高。多伦多稳步增长的人口同样助长了这场危机。新多伦多人的涌入需要大量新房产。然而，供应根本跟不上。

几年前，多伦多的住房通胀问题变得极其严重，以至于政府介入并实施了一系列降温措施。早在 2017 年 4 月，安大略省政府就提出了安大略省公平住房计划，该计划包含了16项措施，所有措施都旨在让更多人负担得起住房，同时仍然保护房主的利益。最重要的措施是对1991年之后建造的私人住宅进行租金控制，以及对购买住宅作为投资和/或第二财产的买家征税。根据全国租赁报告，加拿大房地产市场在过去一年呈上升趋势，目前多伦多一居室的平均租金为2,023 加元（1,589 美元）。该报告证实，加拿大最大的两个城市多伦多和温哥华的房地产市场依然在稳步增长。

来自国外的投资客在多伦多火热的房地产市场中同样发挥了作用。早在2017年，政府就对外国买家征收15%的税。这个政策有助于稳定市场——尤其是公寓市场。然而，价格仍然高居不下。可以注意到，越来越多的房地产广告开始包含英文和中文，这可能会吸引众多外国买家，其中许多来自中国大陆。最近几个月，加拿大政府提出了一项外国买家禁令，以帮助缓解通胀，甚至即便是加拿大本地人也被限制。然而，一些专家并不完全确定这项禁令是否会有所帮助，因为外国买家只占加拿大房地产购买量的一小部分。

许多人认为疫情之后会出现市场崩盘，然而，事实是疫情后，租金继续上涨。Bullpen研究 咨询公司表示，通货膨胀、供应链问题和利率变化可能会影响市场的未来。疫情期间的政府政策变化使情况恶化，因为利率和借贷成本被削减了一半，从而产生了更大的需求。 这也导致持续存在的供需问题只会因疫情持续发展而恶化。多伦多可能不是世界上房价最高的城市，但加拿大的居民收入和房价差距却是最大。

Canada’s real estate boom has been strongly felt by all citizens, especially those residing in the nation’s larger metropolitans. In the past five years, the housing market has skyrocketed, making it nearly impossible for younger generations to purchase and rent properties. High rent and purchasing prices are pushing city dwellers out of urban areas and into nearby towns. Among the two Canadian cities most notorious for unaffordable housing are Toronto and its west coast counterpart, Vancouver. This housing crisis is a multifaceted problem with numerous moving parts and contributing factors. When looking closely into Canada’s most populated city, Toronto, it becomes evident that government intervention is necessary to ensure Torontonians can afford their lives in the city.
Toronto is the fifth-largest city in all of North America and is incredibly vibrant and multicultural. It is known for its unique architecture, diversity and opportunity — with nearly 50 percent of its population being foreign-born. With architecture ranging from 19th-century Georgian to postmodern styles, many dream of getting their hands on the quintessential red brick Victorian and Edwardian-esque homes that line many of Toronto’s downtown streets. However, such homes are hard to come by and cost a pretty penny.
A major factor contributing to this crisis is that demand outweighs supply, recently proven by a report carried out by The Canadian Urban Institute, City of Toronto and Canadian Centre of Economic Analysis. From community housing to high-end real estate, there are simply not enough properties on the market. Due to such limited properties, the costs of the ones on the market are highly-prized and highly-priced. Toronto’s steadily growing population is equally contributing to this crisis. The influx of new Torontorians requires a stream of new properties. However, supply simply cannot keep up.
Toronto’s housing inflation became so bad a few years back that the government stepped in and implemented a series of cooling measures. Back in April of 2017, the government of Ontario announced the Fair Housing Plan of Ontario, a plan which consisted of 16 different measures, all aimed at making housing more affordable while still protecting the investments undertaken by homeowners. The most significant of the measures were the rent control for private units built after 1991 and a tax on buyers purchasing dwellings as an investment and/or second property. According to the National Rent Report, the Canadian housing market has trended upward in the past year, with the average rent cost for a one-bedroom in Toronto currently priced at $2,023 ($1,589 USD). The report confirms that the housing market in Canada’s two largest cities, Toronto and Vancouver, is steadily increasing.
Foreign purchasing has equally played a role in Toronto’s expensive real estate market. Back in 2017, the government imposed a tax of 15 percent on foreign buyers. This has helped stabilize the market — especially the condo market — however, prices are still worryingly high. There is a noticeable trend in publishing real estate ads in both English and Chinese, which is likely to attract numerous foreign buyers, many of whom are from mainland China. In recent months, the Canadian government has proposed a foreign buyer ban to help ease inflation and even the playing field for Canadians. However, some experts are not entirely sure if this ban will help as foreign buyers only account for a small fraction of Canadian real-estate purchases.
Many thought that a market crash would have ensued following the pandemic, however, as we enter the post-pandemic world, rental rates continue to increase. Bullpen Research & Consulting says inflation, supply chain issues and rate changes could possibly impact the future of the market. Government policy changes during the pandemic worsened the situation as interest rates and borrowing costs were cut in half, thus creating a larger demand. Ultimately, the persisting supply and demand problem was only worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic. Toronto may not be the most expensive city in the world, however Canada has one of the most dramatic disconnects between income and property value.


▲ “1200 Bay”/ 赫尔佐格和德梅隆建筑事务所 / 效果图 / 加拿大多伦多
1200 Bay by Herzog & de Meuron, Concept Drawing, Toronto, Canada.

以赫尔佐格和德梅隆事务所的新设计为例。1200 Bay大厦位于多伦多Bay-Bloor购物区中心，主要用于私人和商业用途。该塔楼高 87 层，共有 332 套公寓单元，从一居室到顶层套房不等。他们提出的概念是，这座精致、最先进的建筑将容纳居民想要的一切：健身中心、客户服务和餐饮选择。这个项目体现了多伦多最大的问题——为富人建造的公寓似乎源源不断。

Take Herzog & de Meuron‘s new concept design for example. Located in the heart of Toronto’s Bay-Bloor shopping district, the 1200 Bay tower will be for both private and commercial use. The tower will rise 87 stories high and will feature 332 condominium units ranging from one-bedrooms to penthouse suites. The proposed plans exemplify a sophisticated, state-of-the-art building that will house everything a dweller could desire: a fitness center, a concierge service and dining options. This project exemplifies one of Toronto’s biggest problems — a seemingly endless stream of condominiums being built for the rich.


▲ Sixty Colborne公寓的样板套间 / 加拿大多伦多
Model Suite of Sixty Colborne, Toronto, Canada.

相比之下，“Sixty Colborne”公寓代表了另一个方向—小户型单元。这间公寓位于多伦多历史悠久的圣劳伦斯市场区，拥有独特的风情和魅力。“Sixty Colborne”公寓旨在为居民提供一个远离喧嚣和繁华城市的机会，配备健身中心、礼宾服务和客房套房。该建筑由255个单元组成，每平方英尺的平均价格为1,108 加元（869.95 美元）。 这些房间的面积从439到2,290平方英尺不等，包含小户型和舒适型户型。

In contrast, the Sixty Colborne condominiums exemplify yet another issue — tiny units. Located in Toronto’s historic St Lawrence market district, this condo embraces the neighborhood’s unique flair and charm. Designed to offer dwellers a chance to detach from the hustling and bustling city, Sixty Colborne comes complete with a fitness center, concierge service and guest suites. Comprised of 255 units, the average price per square foot in this building is $1,108 ($869.95 USD). The units range anywhere from a tiny 439 to a comfortable 2,290 square feet.


▲ 联排复式住宅 / Batay-Csorba Architects / 加拿大多伦多
Double Duplex by Batay-Csorba Architects, Toronto, Canada.

Batay-Csorba Architects事务所设计的联排复式住宅是对多伦多不断增长的房地产市场和住房短缺的回应。为了解决这个问题，建筑师们把房子变成了两个独立的房产。这样，房主可以选择出租其中一个单元，或将其用作第二个居住空间，拥有足够的灵活性。该项目位于多伦多历史悠久的帕克代尔社区，通过此举一方面提供了额外的住房，另一方面为需要第一套住房的居民提供了便利。

加拿大的房价比以往任何时候都更加让人望而却步，并且居民受到了极大的影响。特鲁多政府提出了特别税收政策和其他措施来帮助未来的买家。尽管如此，对于后代和购房者来说，加拿大房地产市场的未来仍然扑朔迷离。

The Double Duplex home by Batay-Csorba Architects responds to Toronto’s rising real estate market and the housing shortage. To tackle such a problem, the architects turned the home into two separate properties. This offers the homeowners the option to rent out one of the units or use it as a second living space. Located in Toronto’s historic Parkdale neighborhood, this project exemplifies the use of densification within urban spaces to create additional housing and affordable first homes.
Canadian homes are even more out of reach than ever and the effects are strongly felt. The Trudeau government has proposed special taxes and other measures to help future buyers. Nonetheless, the future of the Canadian housing market remains uncertain for future generations and homebuyers.